Container rates have risen in recent weeks due to the war around Iran, but there has been no explosive price development. According to logistics analysts, the impact so far remains clearly limited, especially compared to the corona pandemic. The market remains relatively stable despite tensions in the Middle East.
Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, transport costs have increased, though. Shipping companies have to detour, fuel prices are higher and insurance premiums have risen. Yet a global shockwave in container rates remains absent for now.
On several routes, container rates have increased by up to 30 per cent. This is significant, but still less extreme than during previous crises. According to research firm Drewry, the current situation is more manageable, partly because capacity in the market remains largely intact.
By comparison, during the corona pandemic, spot rates on major trade routes rose 35 per cent within a month. In the current situation, that increase is around 16 per cent on many routes, indicating a less disrupted market.
The biggest price increases are currently visible on routes to the Middle East. There, fares have increased by more than 300 per cent since February. Outside this region, however, the impact remains limited.
Container rates are highly dependent on available capacity, so price increases are often limited if there are enough ships in the market.
The current disruptions are mainly of a regional nature. Capacity to and from the Gulf region has decreased, but globally the supply of shipping space remains adequate. This does not create a structural shortage that drives up prices globally.
According to analysts, shippers therefore need not worry about a repeat of the extreme rates from the covid period. As long as demand for transport remains moderate and capacity is maintained, the market will develop relatively stably.
This does not mean that companies will not notice anything. Higher costs and longer routes do put pressure on the supply chain. But the situation remains manageable and predictable, which is important for planning and budgeting.
For logistics parties, it remains important to remain flexible and monitor routes closely. You can read more about international transport and cost structures on the sea freight page.
Container rates are expected to remain under the influence of the geopolitical situation for the time being, but without extreme outliers. With this, the market seems more resilient than during previous global crises.