According to Freightos maritime analyst Judah Levine, the Strait of Hormuz is not officially closed, but in practice the passage is considered too risky for Western cargo ships. Attacks on vessels and security warnings have rapidly disrupted a crucial corridor for global energy and commodity trade. For oil and gas the impact is immediate, but container logistics are also taking a major hit.
Major container shipping companies, including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC and CMA CGM, have largely suspended their services through the Strait of Hormuz to destinations in the Persian Gulf. Ships already operating in the Gulf are being advised to seek safe ports. This disrupts shipping routes that normally facilitate a significant part of regional supply and distribution.
At the same time, transport costs are rising sharply. CMA CGM has introduced an emergency surcharge of $2,000 to $4,000 per container for routes to and from the Gulf region. In parallel, insurers are tightening their terms and war risk premiums are rising to exceptionally high levels. This affects quotations, contracts and the overall cost structure of international supply chains.
Diverting container flows away from the Persian Gulf is creating congestion elsewhere, according to Freightos. Containers may be temporarily stored at ports along the Gulf of Oman, such as Khor Fakkan, and at ports in Oman. Transhipment hubs in Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Singapore are also mentioned as locations where additional pressure may arise. This increases the risk of a waterbed effect that disrupts global supply chains.
Moreover, within the Gulf region itself, the vulnerability of major logistics hubs is becoming increasingly apparent. DP World temporarily suspended operations at Jebel Ali in Dubai after an incident involving a fire. The terminal later resumed operations, but the event highlights how quickly shipping lanes and terminal activities in the region can be affected. Jebel Ali is considered the largest container port in the Middle East and a key distribution hub for the entire region.
Diverting shipping routes via the Cape of Good Hope typically adds 10 to 14 days to the journey, increasing fuel costs and putting additional pressure on global shipping schedules.
The disruption is not limited to Hormuz. Shipping companies are again avoiding the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, as the route via Bab el-Mandeb is considered too dangerous. Maersk, among others, has shifted two services, meaning that shipping routes between Asia and Europe are once again more frequently diverted around Africa. This lengthens sailing times, increases costs and leads to higher emissions due to additional fuel consumption.
The economic consequences are widespread. Egypt is losing revenue as the Suez Canal is used less frequently, while exporters in countries such as Sri Lanka are suffering because trade flows to the Gulf region are weakening. In addition, a slowdown in economic activity in the Gulf could affect labour migration and remittances, which form an important part of income in several countries.
Air cargo is also affected by airspace closures over several Middle Eastern countries. The loss of hubs in the region reduces global capacity and increases air freight rates, which may eventually lead to higher prices for goods in Western markets. Combined with rising energy prices, this creates a chain reaction that affects both sea and air logistics.
The blockades highlight how vulnerable international shipping routes are to geopolitical escalation. As long as the situation persists, longer transit times, higher costs and shifting trade flows are likely to remain the norm. For logistics professionals, it becomes crucial to review schedules, hedge risks contractually and activate alternative routes and transport modes in time.
Want to know more about our logistics solutions and how we handle disruptions in international shipping lanes? Check out our services at https://www.top.nl/diensten.