Air freight between China and Europe is falling

TOP MAGAZINE · Air Freight

Global air freight grew by 6% in October 2026, but volumes between China, Hong Kong and Europe actually fell sharply due to new EU levies and changing e-commerce flows.

Global growth masks Asia–Europe dip

October 2026 saw a sharp rise in global air freight volume. According to market figures, the so-called chargeable weight rose by 6 per cent compared with last year, and by 5 per cent compared with September. Average global rates even rose by 29% year-on-year. What is striking is the broad spread of growth: Africa, the Middle East and South Asia each saw growth of 10 per cent, the Asia-Pacific region rose by 7 per cent, North America by 5 per cent and Europe by 4 per cent.

However, this growth was not universal: air freight from China and Hong Kong to Europe actually fell by 17 per cent year-on-year. Volume from mainland China fell by 8 per cent, and from Hong Kong itself by as much as 32 per cent.

New EU levies affect China–Europe flows

The sharp decline in Asia–Europe air freight traffic is linked to changes in EU legislation. Since 1 July, a €3 customs duty has applied to parcels from outside the EU with a value of up to €150. From 1 November, a €2 handling fee was added to this, regardless of the parcel’s value.

According to industry commentary, this is causing e-commerce platforms to increasingly shift from individual consumer deliveries to more consolidated business-to-business goods shipments, often via sea freight or alternative modes of transport. This is evident in the contrast between the strong overall growth in air freight and the decline on this main corridor.

Other markets are picking up

Air cargo between China/Hong Kong and the US did, however, grow by 8 per cent. Rates on the China–Europe route also rose by 9 per cent compared with September (to $4.85/kg) and are 14 per cent higher than last year. For China–US, rates rose by 7 per cent month-on-month (to $6.47/kg).

Freighter capacity increased, but a decline in passenger flights with bellyhold capacity kept the total air freight supply stable. The outlook for the fourth quarter remains positive, with a forecast growth of 6 per cent compared with Q4 2025. The market is therefore characterised by strong global momentum, but regional contrasts.

What does this mean for your shipment?

TOP’s analysis based on the above developments.

Planning

Shippers heavily reliant on China–Europe shipments must seriously factor in reduced air freight capacity and potentially longer transit times. This makes alternatives such as sea or rail transport more attractive.

Costs

The general price level is rising worldwide, and certainly on routes where demand is increasing. For China–Europe, in addition to increased rates, new fixed charges have also been structurally factored into the cost price.

Point to note

In practical terms, shippers of small parcels need to review their logistics strategy in light of both structurally higher rates and stricter, all-inclusive pricing due to customs duties and handling fees in the EU.