Container tariffs Asia-Europe on verge of major blowout
Container rates on the important trade route between Asia and Europe appear to be on the verge of a sharp rise. According to the well-known tariff barometer, the World Container Index from consultant Drewry, the first clear movement is already visible this week. Container rates on the Shanghai–Rotterdam route increased by 19 percent shortly after tensions in the Middle East flared up again.
The average price for transporting a 40-foot container between Shanghai and Rotterdam is now around $2,443, according to Drewry. A week earlier, that level was still approximately $2,052. This suggests that the recent period of falling container rates has come to an end, at least for now.
In the weeks leading up to this increase, container rates had actually been under pressure. Cargo volumes were relatively low, partly due to the Chinese New Year, and there were concerns about growing overcapacity in container liner shipping. The recent rise therefore represents a clear shift in the market trend.
Container rates respond to geopolitical tensions
The initial rise in container rates is seen by analysts as a possible harbinger of a much larger movement. Drewry expects container rates to increase further in the coming weeks. According to several shipping experts, the current rise is still relatively modest.
Danish shipping expert Lars Jensen points out that a similar development occurred earlier during the Red Sea crisis in late 2023. At that time, container rates rose by 16 percent in the first week. After a short pause around the Christmas period, this was followed by a spectacular increase of as much as 115 percent.
If container rates were to rise again by a similar percentage, the rate for container transport between Asia and Europe could reach around $5,250 per 40-foot container. That would represent a significant increase compared with the current price level.
Shipping lines push for higher container rates
Several container shipping companies have already announced plans to raise their container rates. Shortly after the outbreak of war in the Middle East, both Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM indicated price levels of around $4,000 per 40-foot container on the Asia–Europe route.
These new rates are expected to take effect in mid-March. Because price adjustments in container liner shipping often have to be announced several weeks in advance, the actual increases usually follow later.
MSC, meanwhile, has announced an even more ambitious price. The shipping line plans to charge a container rate of around $4,700 per 40-foot container on the Asia–Europe route from 22 March. Interestingly, this rate is only valid until further notice and, in any case, no later than the end of March. This leaves room for MSC to readjust container rates afterwards.
Incidentally, the shipping companies emphasize that fuel surcharges are already included in these announced container rates. Nevertheless, the final transport price could rise further if geopolitical tensions persist or if demand for container transport suddenly increases.
Container rates Mediterranean even higher
Container rates for transport to the Mediterranean are currently even higher than those on the route to Northern Europe. According to Drewry, the rate for container transport between Shanghai and Genoa has now risen to around $3,120 per 40-foot container.
MSC even plans to charge rates of around $6,200 per container for transport to several ports around the Mediterranean. For destinations in North Africa, container rates could rise even further. For Algeria, for example, amounts of up to $8,700 per container are being mentioned.
Drewry's World Container Index is used worldwide as an indicator of container rates on major trade routes such as Asia-Europe and Asia-America.
Remarkably, container rates for transport from Europe to Asia have so far shown little reaction to international tensions. In fact, the price for shipping a container from Rotterdam to Asia fell slightly by about 3 percent this week. The average rate is currently around $528 per 40-foot container.
The coming weeks will be decisive for the further development of container rates. If geopolitical tensions persist and shipping companies adjust their capacity, the market could once again see a sharp rise in prices.
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